Following a slow start shaped by a prolonged winter and lingering economic unease, Canada’s spring housing market began to find its footing in May, with momentum carrying into June. Buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines began to re-engage, encouraged by stabilizing borrowing costs and a healthy supply of inventory in many markets. While activity remains below typical seasonal levels in some regions, the late-spring pickup has set a more optimistic tone for the second half of the year, and positioned the market for a stronger fall.

According to the Royal LePage^® House Price Survey and Market Forecast, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada decreased 1.4% year over year to $814,900 in the second quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price remained flat, increasing a modest 0.2%.

“After a sluggish first quarter, the spring housing market finally got rolling in May. Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency. In markets where inventory levels remain elevated, homebuyers have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along. That measured approach is reinforced by a persistent backdrop of economic uncertainty, which continues to shape how and when many Canadians decide to move.”

In May, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.2% year over year, up from 2.8% in April,² the highest reading since January 2024. The acceleration has been largely driven by rising energy prices, which continue to reflect the impact of hostilities in the Middle East. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem indicated in June, however, that inflationary pressures have not spread broadly in a way that would signal a wider rise in general inflation.³ The Bank of Canada’s key lending rate remains at 2.25%, untouched since October 2025.  

“Should rising inflation become more widespread, the Bank may be compelled to raise rates again,” said Soper. “What our regional experts tell us, however, is that a modest rate increase is unlikely to set off alarm bells. This is not the post-pandemic era, when steep and rapid rate surges sent shock waves through the market. Today’s buyers are thinking strategically, weighing broader risks to their employment and the economy, rather than reacting to incremental rate moves.”

Most and least expensive cities see narrowing price gap

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9% year over year to $862,400, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9% to $574,800. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased modestly by 0.6%, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.5%. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

In the second quarter, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.5% year over year in Greater Vancouver and declined 4.6% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), although prices in the GTA have been inching upward on a monthly basis since the start of the year. Elsewhere in the country, limited supply has kept upward pressure on home prices.

“The price gap between Canada’s most expensive and most affordable markets continues to narrow. Softening home prices in our largest and most costly cities are making these markets more accessible, opening the door for buyers who may have previously been priced out. Meanwhile, secondary markets that did not experience drastic pandemic price increases followed by sharp declines, have continued to record steady home price gains,” added Soper. “For newcomers to Canada and first-time buyers already living in British Columbia’s lower mainland and Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe, the calculus is shifting. Looking ahead, this could translate into less interprovincial migration than we have become accustomed to this decade.”

Pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave nears its end

Canadian mortgage holders are approaching the end of a multi-year renewal cycle rooted in ultra-low pandemic-era rates.

Over the next year, the last of the five-year, fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding mortgages, according to the Bank of Canada.⁴ On average, these borrowers can expect their monthly payments to increase by 15%.

“The over-blown pandemic mortgage renewal scare is all but over and most Canadians have weathered the storm. By the middle of next year, virtually all borrowers facing significant payment increases will have renewed. While most will be able to manage the adjustment, a small subset of homeowners face a more challenging road, particularly in higher-priced markets where home prices have taken a more sustainable dip in recent years,” said Soper. 

“That said, the numbers remain small enough that we do not expect a meaningful impact on the broader housing economy. National mortgage delinquency rates remain low by historical standards, meaning that most borrowers have been able to absorb higher payments without falling behind and have been able to successfully refinance. Rising incomes and a resilient labour market continue to work in homeowners’ favour. And, strict mortgage stress test rules mean borrowers would have qualified at a much higher rate than they actually paid when they took out those mortgages.”

As of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national mortgage delinquency rate in Canada is 0.24%.⁵

Second quarter press release highlights:

• The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 4.9% year over year to $650,500 in the second quarter of 2026.
• Quebec City’s record performance begins to cool; region posts quarter-over-quarter price decline for the first time in more than three years. 
• Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

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